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Real Estate market in Spain 2024

Posted by David on December 1, 2023

We interviewed the key real estate specialists to tell us their estimates for the rental market, property buying and selling and mortgages in 2024

2023 has been an interesting year in the real estate sector. The approval of the Housing Law, the general elections, the rise in rates by the European Central Bank, and the consequent rise in mortgage prices are some of the milestones that have marked the sector during these months. The stabilization of sales during the year compared to the boom of 2021 and 2022 and the drop in the supply of rental housing have marked 2023. What will happen in the real estate sector in 2024? We spoke with the main real estate experts about their forecast of what will happen to housing next year.

What will happen to home sales in 2024?

With 2021 and 2022 having a great sales boom in Spain, 2023 has been the year of market stabilization. In 2024, according to all the experts consulted, it will be the year of the slowdown in home buying and selling. Although they detail, due to the large figures from previous years, there will be sales figures in line with the market. We compile the forecasts of real estate experts about what will happen to home sales in 2024

2024 will be the year of the slowdown in home buying and selling, according to experts.

During 2023, the slowing trend in home sales was seen at the beginning of the fourth quarter of the year. Although it must be put into context that this decrease occurs due to comparing it with 2022, a year of authentic real estate boom, It is a figure that continues to show resistance to rate increases and a monthly volume similar to the 2019 figures, which represents a return to normality and the usual dynamics of the market.

What will happen to the price of housing for sale in 2024?

The price of housing for sale has continued an upward trend in 2023, according to the Fotocasa real estate index. In 2024, due to the evolution of mortgages and the drop in sales, prices should fall, but the high demand and lower supply will mean that they will remain the same. This is what most experts say. We compile the forecasts of experts in the sector about what will happen to the prices of home purchases in 2024.

Home purchase and sale prices in 2024 will be set according to the tension between supply and demand in each area, according to experts

What will happen to housing rentals in 2024? 

The big difference between the low supply and the high demand for rental apartments is what will mark the market for next year. According to experts, there will continue to be little supply of rental housing, which will contribute to the market imbalance over the next year. We interviewed the forecasts of real estate experts about what will happen to rentals in 2024.

The insecurity in renting homes will continue the imbalance between supply and demand during 2024, according to experts.

What will happen to the price of rental housing in 2024?

The rental price in Spain during 2023 has been rising. Although it has moderated during the last quarter, the imbalance between supply and demand will mean that rental prices will continue to rise in 2024, although this evolution will be different depending on the area, according to experts. We interviewed the leading experts in the sector about what will happen to rental prices in 2024.

Rental prices in 2024 will continue to be stressed due to high demand and decreased supply.

During 2023, the rental price in Spain continues to increase strongly, and the slowing trend that it showed since the second quarter of the year is behind us. In fact, the most stressed communities continue to show very significant, double-digit increases, once again reaching historical maximum prices.

How will home mortgages evolve in Spain in 2024?

The evolution of mortgage contracting during this year shows a stabilization in the figures, although 2023 will close around 380,000 concessions, one of the best years since 2010. Next year will bring a change in the mortgage cycle, where the signing of mortgages will be lower compared to this year.

Mortgage contracting will moderate during 2024 to levels similar to pre-pandemic.

The signatures this year are no longer as large as those of the previous two years, and it is confirmed that the mortgage boom has ended. Therefore, the fair thing to do in the analysis would be to compare the figures for 2023 with those of 2019, the year before the outbreak of COVID-19. This comparison reflects that the 2023 data are very similar to the pre-pandemic data, since they ranged between a range of 22,000 and 35,000 operations.

What will happen to mortgage interest next year?

The evolution of the Euribor in the history of this year has presented its greatest increase in the last 15 years, accused by the increase in rates of the European Central Bank, a measure that it resorted to to lower inflation in the eurozone. Looking ahead to next year, mortgage interests may vary according to different macroeconomic scenarios. The experts in the sector tell us their forecasts about what will happen to mortgage interests in 2024.

Mortgage interests could fall at the end of 2024, depending on macroeconomic scenarios and the actions of the European Central Bank.

The rise in mortgage interest rates, accompanied by the tightening of the requirements for contracting them by entities, are some of the main reasons for this moderation.

What will happen to the real estate market next year? 

All experts agree that 2024 will be the year of stabilization of the real estate sales market after two great years after the pandemic stopped. The numbers show a drop in sales and mortgage signings compared to 2022, a trend that seems to continue next year, resembling figures from 2019. Still, despite the slowdown, home prices continue to decrease, and, looking to 2024, these prices could remain or decrease depending on the area.

On the other hand, the rental market will continue to be stressed. The Housing Law has created a climate of insecurity that has caused many owners to withdraw their homes from long-term rental, causing the rents offered to drop while rental demand has increased due to the rise in the price of financing, which has caused many individuals to postpone the purchase and return to renting. This has created a great imbalance that will cause prices to continue rising in 2024.

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